COVID-19 MODELS

#masks4all #secondwave #covid19 #blacklivesmatter The USA has definitely shown indications of starting an upward trend in recent days but these have generally not been attributed to the protests but to early opening of economies. Indeed there are now reports starting to drip out confirming what I have been saying for weeks now, that the combination of masks and outdoors should minimize transmission risks, as my avid readers will know (yes that means all 5 of you!) Whilst stil

#secondwave #covid19 #georgefloyd This will be my last update on USA George Floyd protest outcomes. It has now been 17 days since George's death and about 2 weeks since the large initial protests in the cities I am looking at. I think this is enough time to see if there are any changes in disease incidence. Any changes after this are most likely due to other issues. Although total USA daily incidence increased again today, this is consistent with the seven day pattern of peak

#secondwave #covid19 #georgefloyd Data is from day 15 after George Floyd's death. There was a big spike in US daily incidence today which is not yet sufficient to alter the overall flat trend. I note this report in the Washington Post, "Coronavirus hospitalizations rise sharply in several states following Memorial Day", which relates the hospitalizations to early relaxations of stay at home orders in certain states and does not implicate the protests. I think it is too early

#secondwave #covid19 #georgefloyd for original discussion see here It is now day 14 after death of George Floyd. Total US incidence of daily cases remains approximately the same as the day of his death. The median incubation time is about 5 days after exposure and about 97% of people who develop symptoms will do so within about 11 days. Add another 2 days before symptomatic people get tested and another 2 days before results are reported I would expect to see daily incidence